As we head into the last complete trading week before Christmas, the decline in global share prices still appears to have a full head of steam: the S&P 500 index began the week with a 2% slide, tumbling to a 14-month low, while the Dow Jones and NASDAQ 100 similarly suffered falls of more than 2%.
The bearishness has not been restricted to Wall Street: the German DAX and the UK’s FTSE 100 are both languishing at two-year lows. We have some major economic events scheduled for the days ahead, most notable of which is the December FOMC meeting. A rate hike is widely expected by analysts, but beyond the rate decision itself, the Fed’s economic projections could provide insight into how the monetary policy wind may blow in 2019.
The top trader we are focussing on today has been struggling with the bearish conditions of the last couple of months, but nevertheless has accomplished a staggeringly high profit performance over the life of the account. This account is called MeisterTrading2016 and you can see what they have achieved in the summary below:
As you can see, they have been trading with real money for two and a half years and over that time they have managed to accrue a profit of 70%. The maximum drawdown of 24.45% is substantial, but it does pale in comparison to the size of the profit. The risk score of 2 is attractively small, though the volatility metric of 7.33% is on the large side.
Let’s look at the monthly breakdown in order to garner a feel for the ebb and flow of their profit performance:
So as we said above, they have been struggling recently. Those are chunky losses for November and December and, looking at the numbers, we start to get a feel for how swingy the profit performance of this account has been. There were huge gains made in April and July, but also an oversized loss in June. Furthermore, the poor performance of November and December has served to push the account into a loss for 2018 as a whole.
Let’s see what markets they have been using to trade.
Many recent trades have been with Tesla, though we can see that historically it is the DAX and Bitcoin that have seen the lion’s share of trades. While more diverse than some accounts we have looked at before, this still doesn’t paint a picture of very diverse asset allocation, which may explain some of those swing in profits.
Overall, the recent decline in profit performance is hard to ignore and that should be setting off a few alarm bells. At the same time, the profitability of the account as a whole is difficult to entirely write off. This may be one that is worth waiting on and monitoring to see if they can stabilise that profit performance in the future and get back on to more solid footing once again.